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The Asian condensate market is preparing for the introduction of Saudi Aramco's new Jafurah condensate in Q1 2026. The condensate will be produced from the Jafurah natural gas project in cargo sizes of 500,000 barrels, with expectations of 3-4 spot cargoes per month.

Jafurah condensate has an API gravity of 49.75° and a sulphur content of 0.16%, comparable to Australian Ichthys and Qatari condensates. Market analysts predict that prices may need to adjust downward due to the new supply, although initial buyer hesitance could delay its impact.

Qatar's North Field East expansion, starting mid-2026, may further influence the market, with QatarEnergy securing long-term supply agreements in the meantime. China, which imported around 77,000 b/d of condensate last year, could be a key demand source, particularly as it seeks alternatives to Russian naphtha amidst sanctions.